The Atlantic Heat Conveyor
In the Hollywood
blockbuster the Day
After Tomorrow an
ice age descended
on northern Europe
in days. Is this fact
or fiction? Most
definitely fiction.
But if the Atlantic heat
conveyor - the huge
ocean circulation that helps
maintain Europe’s temperate climate
- were to stop, north European climate
could change in a matter of decades.
NERC’S Rapid Climate Change
Programme is researching the past,
present and future behaviour of this
circulation and how changes affect
the climate. Image Credit: NERC
Without the Gulf Stream’s heat, north-west Europe would face the kind of harsh winters common in Canada.
What’s the risk of the Atlantic conveyor shutting down?
Global warming and melting ice can
both affect the Atlantic Heat Conveyor.
Computer models predict that over
the next 100 years it is very likely the
circulation might slow down – offsetting
some of the global warming that would
otherwise occur. The risk of a total shut
down is thought to be low. Image Credit: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Climate Model. IPCC Scenario A1B.
Measuring the conveyor
The Rapid Climate Change programme
is providing continuous, daily
measurements of the Atlantic Heat
Conveyor - a world first. Day-to-day
the circulation varies much more than
previously thought. Scientists don’t yet
have enough data to say whether the
circulation is slowing. But the programme
will run until at least 2014 - a whole
decade of results. This will be long enough
to start answering important questions. Image Credit: Louise Bell / Neil White, CSIRO
A Sverdrup is a measure of ocean flow. One Sverdrup is equivalent to one million tonnes of water a second. The average strength of the Atlantic Conveyor between 2004 and 2005 was 19 Sverdrups..
Content Credit: National Oceanography Centre, Southampton.